Crikey

The major US networks are all beginning to run out of fresh programming as the writers’ strike drags on and that’s going to make things tough for the local commercial networks as they approach the start of the 2008 ratings battle on 10 February.

The impact on the Australian networks will be varied. Seven stands out as the one most likely to be hurt because of its longer list of successful US programs from the past three years, but Ten also has some essential programs in short supply, as does Nine:

Seven

ABC has nothing left of either of Seven’s top US dramas, Desperate Housewives and Grey’s Anatomy. So Seven will have around 10 to 12 eps of each, which means running them from the start of ratings through to the end of April or early May (with the odd repeat). Heroes and Bionic Woman were bled dry by the quick turnaround of fresh eps late last year.

Fox has kept back episodes of two other Seven dramas, Bones and Prison Break (which have perform moderately or poorly here) and Seven is pushing animated series Family Guy into primetime on Thursday nights again to see if it works.

ABC has fresh eps of Ugly Betty, Brothers & Sisters and Boston Legal, all of which will please Seven, as will eight episodes of the new season of Lost (even though viewers drifted away last year).

Seven’s new programs Dirty Sexy Money, Eli Stone and Samantha Who each have around 10 to 12 eps available, but only Dirty Sexy Money is due for early use here at this stage.

Nine

Nine’s new high profile drama, Cashmere Mafia, started a fortnight ago in the US with just nine eps in the can. Its ratings haven’t been as strong as hoped, so ABC will keep it on simply to fill air time.

CBS has already aired a dozen new eps of CSI, 13 of CSI Miami and 14 of CSI New York. That should help Nine at the start of ratings, even though it has repeated all three programs to the point where viewers are not watching new eps like they used to.

Ten

Ten’s best performing US drama is House but it burned through all but three fresh eps to maintain ratings at the end of the 2007 season. That leaves a big hole in its schedule — the revival of Good News Week will go into Wednesdays at this stage.

NBC has fresh eps of Law & Order and Medium for Ten.

Unless the local networks have specific clauses linked to force majeure type arrangements (can’t supply due to circumstances out of their control), they will have to continue making payments under their production contracts with the studios.

If the strike drags on, they will then have to spend millions on new programs, which will be a hard sell to shareholders for the listed Seven and Ten. For Nine, it will be just its big shareholder, CVC, that will need convincing about the extra spend.

The writers’ strike has been going on for six weeks but the quick settlement of contract discussions between the studios and TV directors late last week provided some hope that the writers and the studios could be forced back to the negotiating table. Discussions were last held on December 7.

Even if there was a settlement tonight, there would not be any new programs completed for at least eight weeks, which means new eps of the likes of Desperate Housewives wouldn’t be seen until early April.

And complicating matters is the impact the strike is having on the 2008-09 season. No work has been done on scripts and other treatments for pilots for the new season since before Christmas and TV executives reckon that even if there was a quick settlement it would be hard to see pilots written, produced and refined by late April-early May in time for the Network “upfronts” or screenings for overseas buyers, including Australian networks, in May.

There are an estimated 30 to 40 pilots in early stages of production, some have been shot but need to be re-worked, others need scripts finished. They are stuck.

The US Networks also use the “upfronts” in May to pre-sell time in the 2008-09 season. Without the pilots or early eps of returning programs available, there will be no pre-selling and the entire season might have to be abandoned at a cost of billions of dollars.

There’s a rough rule of thumb used in the US TV industry: If the writers didn’t return by 1 January, 25% of the usual number of pilots produced for next season would have to be scrapped and if the strike lasts until February 1, the percentage rises to 50%.

And if the strike continues well into next month then primetime development work for the 2008-09 season would have to be abandoned unless the “upfronts” are moved from May into late June or July.