Crikey

Did those last minute polls rattle you? Did you detect a whiff of Major/Kinnock ’92 in the air? Relax. Compulsory preferential voting tends to smooth down those last minute anomalies. But a tip of the hat to Morgan. Their election eve poll showed a 6.2% two party preferred swing to the ALP. The results as of Sunday morning have it down as 6.15.

What’s it mean on the ground? If you want to go sniffing around in detail, you can go to the Electoral Commission or Antony’s site, but here are the headlines.

The AEC’s overview goes like this:

Liberal 47 (down from 74)

Nationals 9 (down from 12)

Country Liberal 1 (unchanged)

ALP 83 (up from 60)

Independent 3 (down from three)

Undecided 9

Antony’s computer has Labor coming home with 86 out of the 150 seats (an increase of 26), the Coalition on 62 (down 25) and two independents (down one).

The Senate count will be churning on for days, but the early results seem surprisingly strong for the Liberals and will come as a great disappointment for the Greens:

• It looks as if NSW has elected three ALP Senators, two Liberals and a Nat, with Green Kerry Nettle going.

• Victoria is splitting three all between the Libs and the ALP, as is Queensland.

• WA appears to have gone three Liberal, two Labor and one Green.

• South Australia has produced the most interesting Senate outcome, electing two Labor and two Liberal Senators, a Green and independent Nick Xenophon.

• Tasmania has gone three Labor, two Liberal and returned Bob Brown.

• Representation from the two Territories looks unchanged.

The total numbers in the Senate appear to be heading towards 37 for the Coalition, 32 Labor, 5 Green, 1 Family First and Xenophon.

This will leave the Coalition one vote short of a blocking majority in its own right. The Greens will not hold the balance of power on their own.