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Sunday, 25 November 2007

The polls: who got it right?

Peter Brent from Mumble Elections writes:

Here are the final week opinion poll results:

Final polls 2007

Primary support

Pollster

Date

Sample

Coal

ALP

Green

Dems

FF

Oth

ALP 2PP

Newspoll

21-2
Nov?

2615

43

44

7

9

52

Nielsen

19-21 Nov

2071

40.5

47.5

8.5

0.5

1

2

57

Galaxy

20-1 Nov

1200

42.5

42.5

8.5

2.4

4

52

Morgan (1)

21-2 Nov

1311

40.5

44.5

9

1

2.5

2.5

54.5

Morgan (2)

23 Nov

2115

41.5

43.5

8.5

2.5

4

53.5

Preliminary election result

41.8

44.0

7.6


1.9

53.6

Churning this lot through the poll-mix came to (to the nearest half a percent) 53.5 to 46.5, which, like the Morgan poll taken on Friday evening, was just about spot on.