Can the polls be wrong enough?
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The Newspoll published in The Australian this morning continues to show Labor with a comfortable lead over the Coalition – 54% to 46% in two party preferred terms. The pollster gives the margin of error for his work as plus or minus 2.5 percentage points putting the Labor vote in the range of 56.5% down to 51.5%. The available evidence from other recent polls is that the Labor vote is not at the low end of the Newspoll range. To win the election Labor needs to get a share around 51.2% if the swing is uniform. At the last five federal elections, the difference between the Newspoll finding a week before polling day and the final election result was as follows:
The biggest variation between the actual and the predicted was 2.3 percentage points in 2004. There will need to be an amazing late swing back to the Coalition if it is to retain office. Nothing occurred on the campaign trail yesterday that would inspire such a thing. That leaves just four days for the polls to be proved wrong. |
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9 Comments
Come on, Richard, we can forgive amateurs but not an old pro like you when it comes to ignoring the critical marginal seat polling that is far from 54-46. Newspoll marginal seat stats in the Weekend Aust would see Howard returned with 6 - 8 seat majority.
You forget that over the last few years, more and more (demographically) Liberal voters are using only a mobile for ALL voice comms - and polling firms don’t call mobiles, only land lines. This became evident in 2004, expect a bigger margin in 2007.
Richard, who will win Barker?Has Thiele a chance.I reckon she needs 25% primary to win if Secker gets less than 47%. S.A. Aggrarian Socialists to hold the balance of power in the new Lower House? Maywald and McEwen are state reps[and Venning]
“and they overwhelming support Labor.” How can you possibly make that assessment? From the polls? That’s the problem, Chris. You can’t get the opinion of a person you never ask.
“it is how much the gap has widened” based on what eveidence? Flawed polls? You among your mates down at the pub after the Socialist Forum meeting?
Peter, I’d love to see your “demographic” evidence that Liberal voting goes hand in hand with abandoning landlines. I’d hate to think that you were yet another Liberal supporter clutching at straws.
Peter, if you want to consider the proportion of the population who solely use mobiles, then the 18-34 demographic is the one to think about, and they overwhelming support Labor. If your proposition is the Libs best hope, they truly are toast!
Peter, you make a claim about mobile phone usage without any substantiation whatsoever. I back up my claim by reference to a nationally published, scientifically collected history of multiple polls, and you complain about my evidence!! Pathetic.
Peter, read Alan Ramsey’s article on ‘History about to repeat itself in reverse’. It is not just the huge gap between Labor and Liberal in the younger age demographics, it is how much the gap has widened since previous elections.