We have a decade, tops, to save the planet

Climate scientists in Australia have been shaking their heads over the political hot air that’s puffed out of this election campaign. Some have completely disengaged from it. These scientists have been waiting decades for global warming to hit the agenda, so now that it’s at the top of it, why aren’t they hanging off the parties’ promises?

Maybe it’s because they were watching the satellite photos of the Arctic sea ice melt months ago. Here they are on the NASA website (click on image):

These photos show that the sea ice shrunk to 40 per cent below its average size, losing an area twice the size of NSW. And no-one saw it coming.

This is not a panic puff piece or a tabloid beat up, this is just one of the findings cited in the report prepared by Dr Graeme Pearman, the former head of CSIRO’s atmospheric research unit and the Climate Adaptation Science and Policy Initiative at the University of Melbourne.

Pearman’s report, commissioned by the Climate Institute, says that the evidence of global warming has dramatically increased in the past 12 months. The report also states:

  • The growth in carbon emissions, mainly from fossil fuels, has leapt in the past decade from 1.1 per cent a year to 3 per cent a year. This means that greenhouse emissions are rising faster than the worst-case IPCC scenarios.
  • The global temperature warming trend is accelerating faster than expected. If continued such a trend will lead to a temperature rise of approximately 3 degrees by the end of this century (relative to pre-industrial temperatures) tipping us into dangerous climate change - defined as over 2 degrees. The average global warming is now 0.8 degrees over the past century, with recent warming growing at 0.2 degrees per decade. If continued such a trend will lead to a temperature rise of approximately 3 degrees by the end of this century (relative to pre-industrial temperatures). Climate models also suggest that this ‘business as usual’ trend will produce global warming of around 3 degrees by the end of this century. This would be the highest global temperature rise recorded in recent palaeoclimate history.
  • The recent rapid decreases in Arctic sea ice extent are occurring much faster than any of the climate model projections suggest would happen. The current summer minima are approximately 30 years ahead of a range of simulation model forecasts. On the basis of current trends, an ice free Arctic Ocean might occur much earlier than 2050 – 2100 as previously thought.

  • Recent scientific work suggests that the capacity for the land and oceans to absorb carbon dioxide emissions is declining. As terrestrial ecosystems respond to anthropogenic climate change, including warming everywhere and drying in some regions, it is likely that some regions that have been sinks of atmospheric carbon will change to sources, through decreases in net primary production, increased occurrence of wild fires, and changes in ecosystem composition.

  • A recent review of climate observations compared to projections suggests that the IPCC projections may have underestimated sea-level rise. The observed sea-level rise for 1993 to 2006 shows a linear trend of 3.3 +/- 0.4 mm/year - higher than the IPCC projected best estimate of 2mm/year. Rahmstorf estimates a sea level rise of 0.5 to 1.4 meters by 2100, which is much higher than the range of projections in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.

These are the kind of findings that the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is quibbling over ahead of the release of their fourth report for the year in Valencia, Spain, this week.

The IPCC is attempting to filter thousands of pages of scientific findings down to a 25-page document – a synthesis to guide government policymakers around the world. But there are widespread concerns that their findings are already out of date given this year’s results. 

According to Pearman’s estimate, the world only has 5-10 years to take drastic action. So what has to happen in that incredibly short amount of time to mitigate major disasters?

John Connor, CEO of the Climate Institute, told Crikey, “all new energy must come from clean energy from now.”

We must drive a new sustainability revolution that dramatically cuts energy wastage, now and brings forward new clean technology,” says Connor.

The window of opportunity for a smooth transition is narrowing rapidly. People can’t just be climate consumers but climate citizens, this just requires political will, the technology is there siting on the shelf it just has to be employed,” says Connor. ”Pressure must be placed on political and business leaders to act now.”

Assuming those leaders can take time out from arguing over tax cuts, laptops, communism, union thugs, budget surpluses, nuclear reactors, when to retire, who’s the bigger economic conservative and ear wax, that is.   

19 Comments

  1. Cameron Douglas
    Posted Thursday, 15 November 2007 at 3:17 pm | Permalink

    no shit sherlock!! the wrinting has been on the wall for 20 years
    How many reruns of the same stories concluding the same result
    Governments fool us with rhetoric whilst the corporations raid our resources
    our standard of living = climate change, duh

  2. planetClaire
    Posted Thursday, 15 November 2007 at 3:46 pm | Permalink

    So, obviously 24th Nov is our last chance as individuals to influence the politicians. We all need to be thinking seriously about climate change when we hit the polls on the 24th. In the Senate, please vote for the Climate Change Coalition.

  3. Tony Papafilis
    Posted Thursday, 15 November 2007 at 3:57 pm | Permalink

    Cameron, re-runs are the necessity of propaganda. Without real science to prove the green/socialist tale, agenda pushers & vested interests profiteering from it rely on propaganda re-runs on basis of telling a lie often enough …

  4. Greg
    Posted Thursday, 15 November 2007 at 4:04 pm | Permalink

    Crikey as usual pushing hthe Global Warming Bandwagon - what about the fact that Antarctic sea ice area reached 16.2 million squared kilometers in 2007 - a new absolute record !
    http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.area.south.jpg

  5. Andrew Burt
    Posted Thursday, 15 November 2007 at 4:24 pm | Permalink

    Cameron, did Tony tell you he was one of Richard Court’s BootBoys?
    That’s right, he’s a Liberal from W.A.
    A failed Liberal at that.
    He will spew the Right Wing bile until the cows come home. That’s his job.

  6. keith hammond
    Posted Thursday, 15 November 2007 at 5:13 pm | Permalink

    From a CC committed: Q for Dr Graeme Pearman: Please help us all understand the relationship between a 40% increase below Aver. Arctic Ann. Sea-Ice Min. and an observed linear trend in sea-level rise (1993-2006 of 3.3 +/- 0.4 mm/year. Thanks.

  7. Tony Papafilis
    Posted Thursday, 15 November 2007 at 6:24 pm | Permalink

    Keep putting out the bile, Andrew, to remind me of the nasty nature of socialists, including Hitler. No enlightenment or pursuit of truth for you, dogma will suffice. You do know that another ice age will come, or do you? Do you know why we have seasons?

  8. Richard McGuire
    Posted Thursday, 15 November 2007 at 6:42 pm | Permalink

    Re: The record Antarctic sea ice cover. Did this include West Antarctica? Has the Larsen B Iceshelf reformed? Temperatures on the Antarctic Peninsula have risen 3 degrees in 50 years. For more detail see http://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php

  9. planetClaire
    Posted Thursday, 15 November 2007 at 6:49 pm | Permalink

    Greg, NASA & others have predicted thickening ice in Antarctica as a result of global warming - http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2005/sea_ice.html. Stick to the point Tony, you’re wasting your breath, no-ones wants to hear it.

  10. Bill
    Posted Thursday, 15 November 2007 at 9:03 pm | Permalink

    Yes, Cameron. You Sociulist. Those commie scientes are screwing us and jus want to take our muney. Jus like when they pretend a man went on the moon. Now they pretend global warming going to kill us. They jus want buy scientes stuff and chasen chiks.

  11. Bill
    Posted Thursday, 15 November 2007 at 9:04 pm | Permalink

    Yes, Cameron. You Sociulist. Those commie scientes are screwing us and jus want to take our muney. Jus like when they pretend a man went on the moon. Now they pretend global warming going to kill us. They jus want buy scientes stuff and chasen chiks.

  12. Mark
    Posted Thursday, 15 November 2007 at 9:44 pm | Permalink

    Surely the best way to clarify what the science is truly trying to tell us is to get a panel of experts in the climate sciences to argue out the evidence and reach a consensus on what it all means - that would be the IPCC, wouldn’t it?

  13. Andrew Burt
    Posted Friday, 16 November 2007 at 2:34 am | Permalink

    Tony, I’d be embarrassed to admit any link to Richard Court and the filth of the Liberal Right.
    So I understand your position.

  14. Peter
    Posted Friday, 16 November 2007 at 10:35 am | Permalink

    Temps rise - global warming; temps fall - global warming; sea levels rise - global warming; sea levels fall - global warming; ice thins - global warming; ice thickens - global warming. This is not science, it’s a cult, where G-O-D is replaced with A-G-W

  15. Tony Papafilis
    Posted Friday, 16 November 2007 at 5:23 pm | Permalink

    I am proud to have worked for the Court Liberal government, arguably the second best government in history of WA, or at worst the 3rd best after Sir Charles Court’s & Sir David Brand’s Liberal governments. Now, back to that man made climate change myth.

  16. Tony Papafilis
    Posted Friday, 16 November 2007 at 5:32 pm | Permalink

    How to spot a political lie wrapped up in scientific jargon? It’s in the political weasel words like “consensus” replacing words such as “proof” in scientific debates. In case you missed science class, science is not a democracy where we vote on truth.

  17. Chris
    Posted Friday, 16 November 2007 at 7:24 pm | Permalink

    I am a green from way back….cant believe I would be backing a Court Liberal. Shows that even those people sometimes see through scams…but then they should know as they created a few.

  18. Mac West
    Posted Thursday, 22 November 2007 at 7:14 am | Permalink

    I’m amazed that so many comments on such a vitally important matter waste time on people’s personal & political bitch fights. Grow up, open your eyes, and VOTE for climate change action on Saturday. And to climate change deniers … you pack of morons.

  19. Mac West
    Posted Thursday, 22 November 2007 at 7:14 am | Permalink

    I’m amazed that so many comments on such a vitally important matter waste time on people’s personal & political bitch fights. Grow up, open your eyes, and VOTE for climate change action on Saturday. And to climate change deniers … you pack of morons.