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Tuesday, 6 November 2007

Australia revealed: Kevin Rudd, Cup favourite

Christian Kerr writes:

More than six million Australians will tune into the Melbourne Cup today, according to special Roy Morgan Research, but how will they vote? That’s what we’re looking at today.

We’ve dug into Roy Morgan data to pull out the 25 seats with the highest percentage of electors who watch the Melbourne Cup. The Victoria Racing Club markets it as the race that stops the nation, but it still seems to be a local thing – 16 of the electorates are in Victoria.

The seats where more electors watch the Cup tend to be held by the Coalition parties. However, there’s bad news for the government there. Four Cup-watching key marginals – McEwen, Bowman, Eden-Monaro and Moreton —  are leaning to Labor. Indeed, the Melbourne Cup watching seats appear to be strongly leaning Labor’s way. Kevin Rudd, the cup favourite?

Crikey’s key seats – the 49 seats we believe will decide the federal election — are marked with an asterisk and more details are available from Electorate Profiles on the Roy Morgan Online Store.

Percentage of electors who agree “I almost always/occasionally watch the Melbourne Cup on TV”

Electorate

% of electors

2PP
Pre-Rudd

2PP
Post-Rudd

Maribyrnong (Vic)

57.18%

LNP 41%,
ALP 59%

LNP 24%,
ALP 76%

Kooyong (Vic)

56.40%

LNP 52.5%,
ALP 47.5%

LNP 48%,
ALP 52%

*Isaacs (Vic)

55.27%

LNP 45.5%,
ALP 54.5%

LNP 37%,
ALP 63%

Farrer (NSW)

55.24%

LNP 49%,
ALP 51%

LNP 50%,
ALP 50%

Menzies (Vic)

54.25%

LNP 58%,
ALP 42%

LNP 50.5%,
ALP 49.5%

Melbourne (Vic)

53.10%

LNP 28%,
ALP 72%

LNP 23%,
ALP 77%

*McEwen (Vic)

52.97%

LNP 48.5%,
ALP 51.5%

LNP 44%,
ALP 56%

Dunkley (Vic)

51.34%

LNP 51%,
ALP 49%

LNP 46.5%,
ALP 53.5%

Goldstein (Vic)

50.89%

LNP 53%,
ALP 47%

LNP 42%,
ALP 58%

Jagajaga (Vic)

50.31%

LNP 50.5%,
ALP 49.5%

LNP 34.5%,
ALP 65.5%

Hunter (NSW)

50.20%

LNP 38.5%,
ALP 61.5%

LNP 35%,
ALP 65%

Murray (Vic)

49.97%

LNP 60%,
ALP 40%

LNP 61.5%,
ALP 38.5%

Corio (Vic)

49.81%

LNP 39.5%,
ALP 60.5%

LNP 31%,
ALP 69%

Dawson (Qld)

49.61%

LNP 41.5%,
ALP 58.5%

LNP 32.5%,
ALP 67.5%

*Bowman (Qld)

49.04%

LNP 52%,
ALP 48%

LNP 47.5%,
ALP 52.5%

Holt (Vic)

48.96%

LNP 40.5%,
ALP 59.5%

LNP 37.5%,
ALP 62.5%

Lingiari (NT)

48.82%

LNP 51%,
ALP 49%

LNP 54.5%,
ALP 45.5%

*Eden-Monaro
(NSW)

48.41%

LNP 49.5%,
ALP 50.5%

LNP 35%,
ALP 65%

Brand (WA)

47.78%

LNP 42.5%,
ALP 57.5%

LNP 44%,
ALP 56%

Aston (Vic)

47.52%

LNP 66.5%,
ALP 34.5%

LNP 52.5%,
ALP 47.5%

Latrobe (Vic)

47.36%

LNP 52.5%,
ALP 47.5%

LNP 48%,
ALP 52%

Prospect (NSW)

47.00%

LNP 42.5%,
ALP 57.5%

LNP 43.5%,
ALP 56.5%

Flinders (Vic)

46.94%

LNP 55%,
ALP 45%

LNP 49%,
ALP 51%

*Moreton (Qld)

46.88%

LNP 51%,
ALP 49%

LNP 34%,
ALP 66%

Higgins (Vic)

46.80%

LNP 50.5%,
ALP 49.5%

LNP 43.5%,
ALP 56.5%