Crikey

With four weeks to go before the federal election, the latest face to face Morgan Poll show Labor 12 points ahead of the Coalition on a two party preferred basis, 56 to 44%.

Telephone polling conducted over the last two nights shows an even narrower gap of nine points despite the Wednesday CPI figures. It put Labor on 54.5% to the Coalition’s 45.5.

On the weekend of the debate between John Howard and Kevin Rudd, primary support for the Coalition was 39.5% (unchanged from the previous face-to-face Morgan Poll), while support for the ALP was 47% (down 2.5%).

With preferences distributed as they were at the 2004 Federal election, the two party preferred vote split ALP 56% (down 1%), Coalition 44% (up 1%).

Support for The Greens is 8% (up 1%), Family First 2% (up 1.5%), One Nation 1% (up 0.5%), Australian Democrats 1% (unchanged), and other parties and independent candidates 1.5% (down 0.5%).

A reduced majority of electors (54%, down 8%) think the ALP will win the next Federal election, while (33%, up 7.5%) think the Coalition will win and 13% (up 0.5%) can’t say.

Now, 53.5% (down 4%) think Australia is heading in the right direction, while 30% (up 1%) think Australia is heading in the “wrong direction” – 16.5% (up 3%) are undecided. Currently, 19% (down 3.5%) of all electors say Australia is “heading in the right direction” yet say they would vote Labor if an election were held today.

Morgan considers these electors to be soft Labor voters and believe they are the key to the Federal election.

An Australia wide telephone Morgan Poll conducted this week (October 24/25) finds Coalition support at 41% (up 1.5% from last week’s telephone Morgan Poll) while the ALP primary vote is 44% (down 1%).

With preferences distributed as they were at the 2004 Federal election, the two party preferred vote splits 54.5% (down 1%) to Labor and 45.5% (up 1%) Coalition.

Currently, support for The Greens is 10.5% (up 1.5%), Australian Democrats 1.5% (up 1%), Family First 1% (down 0.5%), One Nation 0.5% (down 0.5%), and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 1.5% (down 2%).

Pollster Gary Morgan says:

The latest Morgan Polls show the Coalition continuing to close the gap each week. This should not be a surprise to anyone who has watched the historical progress of referenda in Australia. The initial support for a ‘new idea’ or constitutional change flattens out as the time to ‘vote’ approaches – with very few referenda being passed in Australia. “The ‘gap’ will continue to close, and be much closer at election time.

However, there are two crucial ‘sleepers’ in this election. Firstly, real ‘unemployment’ and the danger that the RBA will believe the ‘sanitised’ Government unemployment figures and increase interest rates, when real unemployment is actually 5.8% (38% higher than the Government’s seasonally adjusted 4.2%).

This latest face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on the weekend of October 20/21, 2007, with an Australia wide cross-section of 996 electors. Of all electors surveyed, 4% did not name a party. The latest Australia wide telephone Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on the nights of October 24/25, 2007, with an Australia wide cross-section of 520 electors. Of all electors surveyed, 2% did not name a party.

Meanwhile, Peter Brent from Mumble Elections writes:

So far during this campaign, polls taken mid-week have been much kinder to the government than weekend ones.

Will this be a pattern? Sadly for the government, elections are held on weekends.

Below poll-mix has weekly data, rather than fortnightly. The last figure includes two Morgans and one Newspoll, and comes to 56.5 to 43.5 in Labor’s favour.