Crikey

The market is down 22. The SFE Futures suggested a 26 point fall in the market this morning.

The Dow Jones was down 63 overnight – It moved in a relatively big 248 point range and finished lower for the second consecutive session mainly on the back of lower-than-expected earnings results. Several blue chips managed to post gains despite Wall Street finishing lower, Wal Mart put on 2.9% after raising their 3Q profit forecasts even though they reported same-store sales had increased by a weaker-than-expected 1.4% in September, and General Motors increased 4.6% after union members ratified a new contract with the company. In economic news the US trade deficit came in better-than-expected falling to its lowest level in seven months. The Commerce Department announced the deficit fell to $57.6bn in August, down 2.4% from July - exports increased by 0.4% to a record $138.3bn, while imports fell 0.4% to $195.9bn. The NASDAQ closed down 1.4%, Google finished lower for the first time five sessions after China’s most popular search engine, Baidu.com fell 10% on the back of bearish comments from JP Morgan, and Apple Inc. fell the most in a month.

Resources outperforming with both BHP and RIO up in ADR form and some of the other resources stocks well up overnight in the UK…BHP up 26c to 4630c and RIO up 5c to 11217c. Metals mostly up overnight, both Zinc and Aluminium up 0.2%, Nickel up 1.9% and Copper down 1.2%. Zinifex down 13c to 1865c. Oil price up $1.75 to $83.05 after the government reported an unexpected fall in inventories. The Energy Department said crude supplies fell by 1.7m barrels last week, economists had expected inventories to increase by 1m. Woodside down 46c to 5395c. Gold up $10.70. Newcrest up 4c to 2804c. Newcrest Mining (NCM) might be selling their 70% interest in the Cracow Gold Project in QLD. NCM has approached several interested parties with no figures mentioned yet. Barclays Capital have raised their 4Q 2007 gold price forecast to $750/oz.

The S&P/ASX 200 hit its 4th straight record high yesterday helped by the resource sector. The index is now up 9.3% in the past 17 sessions and up 23.5% off its low in August, the Dow Jones also put on 17% from its correction low.

Nothing much this morning…

• Bank of Queensland (BOQ) down 31c to 1909c after announcing their profit result yesterday. Goldman Sachs JB Were described it as “strong” and above expectations. They say better cost control, a better bad debt outcome and capital initiatives to blame. Target price upped to 1999c. BOQ up 8% in the past month. Merrill Lynch has a SELL and Citigroup a HOLD.
• A bit of steam coming out of the Woolworths (WOW) share price after a 6.2% rise in the past month – down 30c today to 3120c. US retailer Costco announced they plan to enter the Australian grocery market over the next year. Good luck. Metcash (MTS) down 3c to 460c, Coles Group (CGJ) down 1c to 1585c and Wesfamers (WES) down 24c to 4311c.
• Midwest (MIS) has appointed Morgan Stanley to advise it on Murchison Metals’ (MMX) hostile takeover bid. Most brokers say the deal makes sense but it’s a matter of price paid. See Murchison’s Trevor Matthews on the ABC Inside Business program this weekend (10am Sunday). MMX down 10c to 539c and MIS up 5c to 495c.
• It was good news and bad news for Tattersall’s shareholders yesterday. The good news – They had been awarded a license from the Vic government to sell instant lottery tickets, otherwise known as scratchies. The bad news – TTS lost their 54 year monopoly after the Victorian government also awarded a second lottery license to Greek competitor Intralot. Scratchies represents 6% of TTS sales and contributes $35.3m to FY earnings. The license will again come under review in 2018. Citigroup maintain their SELL recommendation on TTS saying they expect Intralot to be a major competitor in the Victorian gaming and wagering contract lenders. Other recommendations include HOLD and NEUTRAL.TTS down 1c today to 412c.
• Macquarie declares Kagara Zinc (KZL) as their preferred copper zinc stock saying “the stock continues to offer a strong organic growth pipeline, combined with significant further development potential and exploration Prospectivity”. They have a 720c target price.
• Companies going ex dividend include – TNL and WHG

In the MARCUS TODAY newsletter today we have a page on Trading Ideas for the next month. Sign on by Monday for a chance to get in the draw to win His and Her iPods and to get a few dollars off the price.

Meanwhile Marcus is off to China for two weeks on Monday with Max Walker, Ron Barassi, Dean Bailey (Melbourne coach), Chris Connolly (ex Fremantle Coach) and nine Melbourne players. You can follow our progress on www.iradiomax.com.au (Max Walker’s internet radio station including free programs on many topics including investment, adventure, humour, risk management, travel and others).

We’ll be kicking a football over the Great Wall. Of course I’ll be trying to watch the Rugby World Cup. My goal … to have Ron Barassi and Max Walker singing “Swing Low” in Shanghai if England make it through Saturday. England paying $3.25 against France paying $1.35. South Africa paying $1.28 against Argentina paying $3.75.

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