Crikey

When’s the election going to be? When’s it going to be called?

Election timetables are determined by the Constitution and the Electoral Act. The Act sets a minimum election period of 33 days and a maximum period of 58 days from the issue of the writs to polling day.

We normally end up with five week campaigns, but the PM’s six week strategy last time around worked well. We could see it repeated, since John Howard seems to have adopted “I want to do you slowly” – or, at least, I want to see you stumble – strategy that aims to wear down his opponent.

The last federal election was held on October 9, 2004. While the House of Representatives expires three years after its first meeting, most voters see the terms as stretching from election to election.

This time, it looks as if the Prime Minister is prepared to take a punt and let his term run significantly beyond the third anniversary of the previous election.

So, dates… There’s been speculation that this would be the last week of sittings before the election, but the Prime Minister said yesterday that parliament will resume after the APEC summit in Sydney.

As we’ve been told before. The Canadian Prime Minister, Stephen Harper, has been invited to address a joint sitting on September 11, two days after APEC. The sittings have been in the diary for a while. It was going to be a two day affair, with the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe originally booked for the eleventh, with Harper due to follow on the twelfth.

An election called that week could be held as early as October 20, but there have been some suggestions in the last couple of days that we’ll vote on November 3 and go to the ballot box before the Reserve Bank Board meets to consider interest rates on Melbourne Cup day.

Still, reports of around $7 million worth of Liberal Party advertising bookings suggest that November could be on the cards.

So, here’s a Crikey guide to dates, pros and cons – with the Sportingbet offerings for the various dates from this morning as well:

October 20. Called September 16. Sportingbet return $7.50

October 27. Called September 23. CPI figures released the Wednesday before Sportingbet return $7.50

November 3. Called September 30. Melbourne Cup carnival Sportingbet return $7.50

November 10. Called October 7. RBA Board could raise rates that week, housing price index figures out on Wednesday and unemployment figures out the Thursday before but the Prime Minister won an election on this date back in 2001 Sportingbet return $4.00

November 17. Called October 14. Sportingbet return $5.50

November 24. Called October 21. Sportingbet return $4.25

December 1. Called October 28. Balance of payments figures out the day before Sportingbet return $5.00

December 8. Called November 4. Too close to Christmas, could damage seasonal sales and hurt a key Coalition constituency Sportingbet return $6.50

And the Crikey brains trust tips? We reckon John Howard will go as late as he can – and want a longer campaign.

Prime Ministers don’t call elections they think they will lose.

John Howard might run out of options – but the ups and downs of the markets might mean an interest rate rise is off the cards and voters will respond to his call that experience matters.

As we’ve said before, this election could end up being a decision between economic management and the “It’s time” factor.

If prosperity looks shaky, voters may agree with Kylie that it’s better the devil you know.