|
When a bookmaker has Labor favourite to win the election but his prices on individual seats show that Labor would not win enough seats to do so, there should be an opportunity to make a little profit.
Hence today’s publication of an Australian federal election form guide giving an assessment of the chances of Labor and Non-Labor winning each individual seat. Where Sportingbet is quoting a price for an individual electorate it is shown as well.
I have assumed that the Owl’s Election Indicator (based on Betfair) is a correct assessment with the ALP a 55.6% chance of winning. That would result in the ALP winning 77 seats to non-Labor’s 73 seats. The opinion polls are currently showing the ALP winning around 94 seats which points to a winning chance of around 90%! The assessment below is thus quite a conservative one.
Seats with the grey shading are the ones where my assessment is that the bookies market is sufficiently wrong (10% or more) to make a bet worthwhile.
|
Electorate
|
Held By
|
Margin
|
ALP Chance
|
Non ALP Chance
|
ALP Price
|
Non ALP Price
|
|
Adelaide
|
ALP
|
1.4
|
0.855
|
0.145
|
$1.30
|
$4.25
|
|
Aston
|
Lib
|
-13.2
|
0.016
|
0.984
|
|
|
|
Ballarat
|
ALP
|
2.3
|
0.831
|
0.169
|
$1.40
|
$2.85
|
|
Banks
|
ALP
|
3.3
|
0.964
|
0.036
|
|
|
|
Barker
|
Lib
|
-19.9
|
0.001
|
0.999
|
|
|
|
Barton
|
ALP
|
7.6
|
0.996
|
0.004
|
|
|
|
Bass
|
Lib
|
-2.7
|
0.564
|
0.436
|
$1.85
|
$1.93
|
|
Batman
|
ALP
|
21.4
|
1.000
|
0.000
|
|
|
|
Bendigo
|
ALP
|
1.0
|
0.758
|
0.242
|
$1.35
|
$2.90
|
|
Bennelong
|
Lib
|
-4.0
|
0.633
|
0.367
|
$3.50
|
$1.25
|
|
Berowra
|
Lib
|
-13.1
|
0.069
|
0.931
|
|
|
|
Blair
|
Lib
|
-5.7
|
0.413
|
0.587
|
$2.55
|
$1.65
|
|
Blaxland
|
ALP
|
15.3
|
1.000
|
0.000
|
|
|
|
Bonner
|
Lib
|
-0.6
|
0.788
|
0.212
|
$1.50
|
$2.45
|
|
Boothby
|
Lib
|
-5.4
|
0.382
|
0.618
|
$4.00
|
$1.22
|
|
Bowman
|
Lib
|
-8.9
|
0.195
|
0.805
|
$3.15
|
$1.30
|
|
Braddon
|
Lib
|
-1.2
|
0.677
|
0.323
|
$1.50
|
$2.15
|
|
Bradfield
|
Lib
|
-17.5
|
0.009
|
0.991
|
|
|
|
Brand
|
ALP
|
4.7
|
0.869
|
0.131
|
$1.35
|
$3.00
|
|
Brisbane
|
ALP
|
4.0
|
0.957
|
0.043
|
|
|
|
Bruce
|
ALP
|
3.5
|
0.885
|
0.115
|
|
|
|
Calare
|
ALP
|
7.9
|
0.997
|
0.003
|
|
|
|
Calwell
|
ALP
|
8.2
|
0.984
|
0.016
|
|
|
|
Canberra
|
ALP
|
10.1
|
0.997
|
0.003
|
|
|
|
Canning
|
Lib
|
-9.6
|
0.041
|
0.959
|
|
|
|
Capricornia
|
ALP
|
3.8
|
0.954
|
0.046
|
|
|
|
Casey
|
Lib
|
-11.4
|
0.038
|
0.962
|
|
|
|
Charlton
|
ALP
|
8.4
|
0.998
|
0.002
|
|
|
|
Chifley
|
ALP
|
12.1
|
1.000
|
0.000
|
|
|
|
Chisholm
|
ALP
|
2.7
|
0.851
|
0.149
|
$1.35
|
$3.00
|
|
Cook
|
Lib
|
-13.7
|
0.055
|
0.945
|
|
|
|
Corangamite
|
Lib
|
-5.4
|
0.281
|
0.719
|
$3.40
|
$1.35
|
|
Corio
|
ALP
|
5.7
|
0.949
|
0.051
|
|
|
|
Cowan
|
ALP
|
0.8
|
0.633
|
0.367
|
$1.70
|
$2.10
|
|
Cowper
|
Nat
|
-6.6
|
0.429
|
0.571
|
|
|
|
Cunningham
|
ALP
|
11.7
|
1.000
|
0.000
|
|
|
|
Curtin
|
Lib
|
-14.7
|
0.003
|
0.997
|
|
|
|
Dawson
|
Nat
|
-10.2
|
0.131
|
0.869
|
|
|
|
Deakin
|
Lib
|
-5.0
|
0.309
|
0.691
|
|
|
|
Denison
|
ALP
|
13.3
|
1.000
|
0.000
|
|
|
|
Dickson
|
Lib
|
-9.1
|
0.184
|
0.816
|
$3.50
|
$1.30
|
|
Dobell
|
Lib
|
-4.8
|
0.571
|
0.429
|
$2.10
|
$1.70
|
|
Dunkley
|
Lib
|
-9.4
|
0.084
|
0.916
|
|
|
|
Eden-Monaro
|
Lib
|
-3.3
|
0.684
|
0.316
|
$2.00
|
$1.80
|
|
Fadden
|
Lib
|
-15.3
|
0.016
|
0.984
|
|
|
|
Fairfax
|
Lib
|
-13.3
|
0.041
|
0.959
|
|
|
|
Farrer
|
Lib
|
-15.4
|
0.026
|
0.974
|
|
|
|
Fisher
|
Lib
|
-13.0
|
0.046
|
0.954
|
|
|
|
Flinders
|
Lib
|
-11.2
|
0.041
|
0.959
|
|
|
|
Flynn
|
Nat
|
-7.8
|
0.261
|
0.739
|
$2.90
|
$1.35
|
|
Forde
|
Lib
|
-13.0
|
0.046
|
0.954
|
|
|
|
Forrest
|
Lib
|
-10.5
|
0.027
|
0.973
|
|
|
|
Fowler
|
ALP
|
13.5
|
1.000
|
0.000
|
|
|
|
Franklin
|
ALP
|
7.6
|
0.987
|
0.013
|
|
|
|
Fraser
|
ALP
|
13.4
|
1.000
|
0.000
|
|
|
|
Fremantle
|
ALP
|
7.8
|
0.959
|
0.041
|
|
|
|
Gellibrand
|
ALP
|
15.0
|
1.000
|
0.000
|
|
|
|
Gilmore
|
Lib
|
-9.5
|
0.224
|
0.776
|
|
|
|
Gippsland
|
Nat
|
-7.8
|
0.145
|
0.855
|
|
|
|
Goldstein
|
Lib
|
-10.1
|
0.064
|
0.936
|
|
|
|
Gorton
|
ALP
|
14.9
|
1.000
|
0.000
|
|
|
|
Grayndler
|
ALP
|
21.3
|
1.000
|
0.000
|
|
|
|
Greenway
|
Lib
|
-11.0
|
0.145
|
0.855
|
|
|
|
Grey
|
Lib
|
-13.9
|
0.023
|
0.977
|
|
|
|
Griffith
|
ALP
|
8.5
|
0.996
|
0.004
|
|
|
|
Groom
|
Lib
|
-19.0
|
0.002
|
0.998
|
|
|
|
Hasluck
|
Lib
|
-1.9
|
0.421
|
0.579
|
$1.87
|
$1.93
|
|
Herbert
|
Lib
|
-6.1
|
0.382
|
0.618
|
$2.15
|
$1.65
|
|
Higgins
|
Lib
|
-8.8
|
0.104
|
0.896
|
|
|
|
Hindmarsh
|
ALP
|
0.1
|
0.788
|
0.212
|
$1.40
|
$2.85
|
|
Hinkler
|
Nat
|
-8.8
|
0.200
|
0.800
|
$2.45
|
$1.50
|
|
Holt
|
ALP
|
1.6
|
0.794
|
0.206
|
$1.42
|
$2.80
|
|
Hotham
|
ALP
|
7.5
|
0.977
|
0.023
|
|
|
|
Hughes
|
Lib
|
-8.8
|
0.268
|
0.732
|
|
|
|
Hume
|
Lib
|
-12.9
|
0.075
|
0.925
|
|
|
|
Hunter
|
ALP
|
11.2
|
1.000
|
0.000
|
|
|
|
Indi
|
Lib
|
-16.3
|
0.003
|
0.997
|
|
|
|
Isaacs
|
ALP
|
1.5
|
0.788
|
0.212
|
$1.50
|
$2.45
|
|
Jagajaga
|
ALP
|
4.5
|
0.919
|
0.081
|
|
|
|
Kalgoorlie
|
Lib
|
-6.4
|
0.136
|
0.864
|
|
|
|
Kennedy
|
Ind
|
-10.5
|
0.119
|
0.881
|
|
|
|
Kingsford Smith
|
ALP
|
8.6
|
0.998
|
0.002
|
|
|
|
Kingston
|
Lib
|
-0.1
|
0.776
|
0.224
|
$1.60
|
$2.35
|
|
Kooyong
|
Lib
|
-9.6
|
0.078
|
0.922
|
|
|
|
La Trobe
|
Lib
|
-5.9
|
0.248
|
0.752
|
|
|
|
Lalor
|
ALP
|
8.8
|
0.988
|
0.012
|
|
|
|
Leichhardt
|
Lib
|
-10.3
|
0.127
|
0.873
|
|
|
|
Lilley
|
ALP
|
5.4
|
0.977
|
0.023
|
|
|
|
Lindsay
|
Lib
|
-2.9
|
0.712
|
0.288
|
$1.65
|
$2.30
|
|
Lingiari
|
ALP
|
7.7
|
0.987
|
0.013
|
|
|
|
Longman
|
Lib
|
-6.6
|
0.345
|
0.655
|
$5.00
|
$1.16
|
|
Lowe
|
ALP
|
3.1
|
0.961
|
0.039
|
$1.20
|
$4.00
|
|
Lyne
|
Nat
|
-14.1
|
0.046
|
0.954
|
|
|
|
Lyons
|
ALP
|
3.7
|
0.925
|
0.075
|
|
|
|
Macarthur
|
Lib
|
-11.1
|
0.140
|
0.860
|
|
|
|
Mackellar
|
Lib
|
-15.5
|
0.025
|
0.975
|
|
|
|
Macquarie
|
ALP
|
0.5
|
0.893
|
0.107
|
$1.70
|
$2.05
|
|
Makin
|
Lib
|
-1.0
|
0.719
|
0.281
|
$1.70
|
$2.10
|
|
Mallee
|
Nat
|
-24.8
|
0.000
|
1.000
|
|
|
|
Maranoa
|
Nat
|
-21.0
|
0.001
|
0.999
|
|
|
|
Maribyrnong
|
ALP
|
9.5
|
0.992
|
0.008
|
|
|
|
Mayo
|
Lib
|
-13.6
|
0.026
|
0.974
|
|
|
|
McEwen
|
Lib
|
-6.5
|
0.212
|
0.788
|
|
|
|
McMillan
|
Lib
|
-5.0
|
0.309
|
0.691
|
|
|
|
McPherson
|
Lib
|
-14.0
|
0.030
|
0.970
|
|
|
|
Melbourne
|
ALP
|
21.2
|
1.000
|
0.000
|
|
|
|
Melbourne Ports
|
ALP
|
3.7
|
0.893
|
0.107
|
|
|
|
Menzies
|
Lib
|
-10.7
|
0.051
|
0.949
|
|
|
|
Mitchell
|
Lib
|
-20.7
|
0.001
|
0.999
|
|
|
|
Moncrieff
|
Lib
|
-19.9
|
0.001
|
0.999
|
|
|
|
Moore
|
Lib
|
-10.9
|
0.023
|
0.977
|
|
|
|
Moreton
|
Lib
|
-2.8
|
0.641
|
0.359
|
$1.60
|
$2.25
|
|
Murray
|
Lib
|
-24.1
|
0.000
|
1.000
|
|
|
|
New England
|
Ind
|
-14.2
|
0.045
|
0.955
|
|
|
|
Newcastle
|
ALP
|
8.7
|
0.998
|
0.002
|
|
|
|
North Sydney
|
Lib
|
-10.1
|
0.189
|
0.811
|
|
|
|
O’Connor
|
Lib
|
-20.4
|
0.000
|
1.000
|
|
|
|
Oxley
|
ALP
|
7.2
|
0.991
|
0.009
|
|
|
|
Page
|
Nat
|
-5.5
|
0.516
|
0.484
|
|
|
|
Parkes
|
Nat
|
-18.8
|
0.004
|
0.996
|
|
|
|
Parramatta
|
Lib
|
-1.1
|
0.821
|
0.179
|
$1.60
|
$2.35
|
|
Paterson
|
Lib
|
-6.8
|
0.413
|
0.587
|
$2.85
|
$1.40
|
|
Pearce
|
Lib
|
-13.0
|
0.008
|
0.992
|
|
|
|
Perth
|
ALP
|
6.8
|
0.938
|
0.062
|
|
|
|
Petrie
|
Lib
|
-7.9
|
0.255
|
0.745
|
$3.00
|
$1.35
|
|
Port Adelaide
|
ALP
|
13.0
|
1.000
|
0.000
|
|
|
|
Prospect
|
ALP
|
6.9
|
0.994
|
0.006
|
|
|
|
Rankin
|
ALP
|
3.0
|
0.936
|
0.064
|
|
|
|
Reid
|
ALP
|
12.0
|
1.000
|
0.000
|
|
|
|
Richmond
|
ALP
|
1.5
|
0.925
|
0.075
|
$1.60
|
$2.35
|
|
Riverina
|
Nat
|
-20.7
|
0.001
|
0.999
|
|
|
|
Robertson
|
Lib
|
-6.9
|
0.405
|
0.595
|
|
|
|
Ryan
|
Lib
|
-10.5
|
0.119
|
0.881
|
|
|
|
Scullin
|
ALP
|
14.8
|
1.000
|
0.000
|
|
|
|
Shortland
|
ALP
|
9.3
|
0.999
|
0.001
|
|
|
|
Solomon
|
Lib
|
-2.9
|
0.548
|
0.452
|
$1.95
|
$1.85
|
|
Stirling
|
Lib
|
-2.1
|
0.405
|
0.595
|
$2.00
|
$1.80
|
|
Sturt
|
Lib
|
-6.8
|
0.281
|
0.719
|
|
|
|
Swan
|
ALP
|
0.1
|
0.579
|
0.421
|
$1.75
|
$2.05
|
|
Sydney
|
ALP
|
17.3
|
1.000
|
0.000
|
|
|
|
Tangney
|
Lib
|
-11.8
|
0.015
|
0.985
|
|
|
|
Throsby
|
ALP
|
13.9
|
1.000
|
0.000
|
|
|
|
Wakefield
|
Lib
|
-0.7
|
0.739
|
0.261
|
$1.85
|
$1.95
|
|
Wannon
|
Lib
|
-12.4
|
0.024
|
0.976
|
|
|
|
Warringah
|
Lib
|
-11.3
|
0.131
|
0.869
|
|
|
|
Watson
|
ALP
|
14.6
|
1.000
|
0.000
|
|
|
|
Wentworth
|
Lib
|
-2.6
|
0.732
|
0.268
|
$3.75
|
$1.25
|
|
Werriwa
|
ALP
|
7.1
|
0.995
|
0.005
|
|
|
|
Wide Bay
|
Nat
|
-12.2
|
0.064
|
0.936
|
|
|
|
Wills
|
ALP
|
17.0
|
1.000
|
0.000
|
|
|
|
TOTAL
|
|
|
77
|
73
|
|
|
Note: The swing figures are based on the Mackerras pendulum as is the notional allocation of seats by party where there have been boundary changes and, in the case of Calare the independent incumbent has decided not to stand for re-election.
| 
